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Cancer Statistics

Incidence Projections

NHS National Services Scotland ISD Scotland & NHS National Services Scotland

Cancer Incidence Projections

Predictions of cancer incidence can help to plan cancer services for the future. The cancer incidence projections presented here are based on historical trends in cancer incidence and population estimates and projections for Scotland.

This publication provides cancer incidence projections for the period 2013-2027 and updates the previous projections that were produced by ISD in 2010. The publication report also includes information on risk factors for cancer such as smoking, diet, alcohol and obesity.

Between 2003 and 2013, the number of new cases of cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) in Scotland has increased from over 27,000 cases to over 31,000 cases. The analysis assumes that recent trends in cancer incidence will continue and that the predictions of the size and composition of the future population of Scotland are accurate. It is expected that the number of new cases of cancer in Scotland will continue to increase over time. Much of this increase can be explained by the ageing population in Scotland.

Cancer incidence projections 2013-2027 Download Excel file [1,714KB] by cancer type, age and sex.

Cancer incidence projections publication report Download PDF file [500kb]

Previous cancer incidence projections

Cancer incidence projections for Scotland were included in Cancer Scenarios: An Aid to Planning Cancer Services in Scotland in the Next Decade, which was published in 2001 by the Scottish Executive. The report modelled cancer incidence trends from 1960-1996 to enable projections up to the period 2010-2014.

The projections were then updated in 2004 in Cancer in Scotland: Sustaining Change, which was again published by the Scottish Executive. The projections were updated to include the period 2016-2020. Projections from this report for the period 2011-2015 were also included in the 2006 report Cancer in Scotland: Radiotherapy Activity Planning 2011-15.

The cancer incidence projections were then updated in 2010. The projections were not included in a publication on that occasion but are available here: Projections of Cancer Incidence in Scotland to 2020. Download PDF file


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