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GPD Support

Population

NHS National Services Scotland ISD Scotland & NHS National Services Scotland

Population Estimates

National Records of Scotland (NRS) normally release the mid-year (30 June) population estimates in April of the following year, for the following geographies:

  • Scotland
  • NHS boards (also known as Health Boards)
  • Council Areas (also known as local authorities)

A few months later population estimates for ‘special areas’ including small areas (Data Zones) are normally released.

The mid-year estimates of the usually resident population are derived using the cohort-component method where Census-based estimates are updated annually by 'ageing on' the population and applying information on births, deaths and migration. Births and deaths are estimated using data from the NRS civil registration system, which is considered to be virtually complete. Migration is more difficult to estimate because there is no comprehensive registration system in the UK. Migration in and out of a particular area is derived from several sources, including: the National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) and Community Health Index (CHI) for migration within the UK and distribution of international migrants within Scotland; and data on asylum seekers and the International Passenger Survey (IPS) for international migration. The sample size for Scotland for the IPS is small, so estimates derived from this survey are subject to large sampling and non-sampling errors. Areas where estimates are less reliable tend to be those with high levels of migration - for example, student areas.


Lookup Files

The following population estimates files are available:


NHS Board
Description of file Single year age groups 5 year age groups
Last Release: 2016 mid-year population estimates and corrected mid-year population estimates for 2012-2014, released in April 2017
Next Release: 2017 mid-year population estimates will be released in April 2018 (for 2014 configuration only)
Source: National Records of Scotland (NRS)
NHS Board (original configuration) Population Estimates 1974-2006 SPSS CSV SPSS CSV
NHS Board (1st April 2006 configuration) Population Estimates 1981-2013 SPSS CSV SPSS CSV
NHS Board (1st April 2014 configuration) Population Estimates 1981-2016 SPSS CSV SPSS CSV

Council Area
Description of file Single year age groups 5 year age groups
Last Release: 2016 mid-year population estimates and corrected mid-year population estimates for 2012-2014, released in April 2017
Next Release: 2017 mid-year population estimates will be released in 2018
Source: National Records of Scotland (NRS)
Council Area Population Estimates 1982-2016 SPSS CSV SPSS CSV

Health and Social Care Partnership
Description of file Single year age groups 5 year age groups
Last Release: 2016 mid-year population estimates and corrected mid-year population estimates for 2012-2014, released in April 2017
Next Release: 2017 mid-year population estimates will be released in 2018
Source: National Records of Scotland (NRS)
Health and Social Care Partnership Population Estimates 1982-2016 SPSS CSV SPSS CSV

Data Zone
Description of file Single year age groups 5 year age groups
Last Release: Mid-2016 Small Area Population Estimates for 2011 Data Zones, released in August 2017
Next Release: 2017 mid-year population estimates will be released in August 2018
Source: National Records of Scotland (NRS)
2001 Data Zone Population Estimates 2001-2014 SPSS CSV SPSS CSV
2011 Data Zone Population Estimates 2011-2016 SPSS CSV SPSS CSV

Intermediate Zone
Description of file Single year age groups 5 year age groups
Last Release: Mid-2016 Small Area Population Estimates for 2011 Data Zones, released in August 2017
Next Release: 2017 mid-year population estimates will be released in August 2018
Source: The GPD Team use aggregated Data Zone population estimates (provded by NRS) to create Intermediate Zone population estimates.
2001 Intermediate Zone Population Estimates 2001-2014 SPSS CSV SPSS CSV
2011 Intermediate Zone Population Estimates 2011-2016 SPSS CSV SPSS CSV

Please Note

  • The population estimates 1982-2001 in the files above are based on the 2001 Census results.
  • The population estimates from 2002-2011 in the files have been rebased on the 2011 Census results.
  • The population estimates from 2012 onwards in the files above are based on the 2011 Census results.

Rebased Population Estimates

Mid-year population estimates are based on the results of the last published Census. When new Census results become available, the population estimates that were published from the previous Census are re-calculated based on the results of the most up to date Census.

Scotland, Health Board and Council Area

  • In August 2013, the population estimates for 2011 (rebased) and 2012 based on the 2011 Census were released.
  • In December 2013, the population estimates for 2002-2010 rebased on the 2011 Census were released.

Data Zone, Intermediate Zone and CHP

  • In December 2013, the population estimates for 2011 (rebased) and 2012 based on the 2011 Census were released.
  • In May 2014, the population estimates for 2002-2010 rebased on the 2011 Census were released.

The 2002-2011 populations in the lookup files above are different from the previously published 2002-2011 populations based on the 2001 Census results. The 2002-2011 populations in the files above are based on the 2011 Census and are the latest and best available estimates. They replace the previous population estimates for these years.

Footnotes should accompany analyses, explaining the population estimates used and the Census they were based on.

Further information on population estimates can be found on the NRS website: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-population-estimates.

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