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GPD Support

Population

NHS National Services Scotland ISD Scotland & NHS National Services Scotland

Population Projections

Future projections of the resident population of Scotland are produced by National Records of Scotland (NRS), usually every two years, for the following geographies:

  • Scotland
  • NHS Board (Health Board)
  • Council Area (Local Authority)

Projections for small areas of Scotland below council area level are not produced by NRS, except for national parks.

Projections are produced by applying to the base population various assumptions about future patterns in fertility, mortality and migration, based on past trends. The final decisions on assumptions take into account the views of a range of groups who are consulted, including a UK expert advisory panel and key users in Scotland. These consultations discuss the likely impact of factors such as increasing child obesity and the economic downturn.

The base population used in projections is a recent mid-year population estimate and includes all persons usually resident in Scotland, whatever their nationality. Members of HM and non-UK armed forces stationed in Scotland are included; HM forces stationed outside Scotland are excluded. Students are treated as being resident at their term-time address.

A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The population projections are trend-based. They are, therefore, not policy-based forecasts of what the government expects to happen. Many social and economic factors influence population change, including policies adopted by both central and local government. The relationships between the various factors are complex and largely unknown. Population projections are likely to be less accurate the further they project into the future, and the smaller the population they are for.


Lookup Files

The following population projections files are available:

Scotland
Description of file Single year age groups 5 year age groups
Last Release: Population Projections 2014-2039 were released in October 2015.
Next Release: Population Projections 2016-2041 will be released in 2017.
Source: National Records of Scotland (NRS)
Scotland Population Projections 2014-2039 SPSS CSV SPSS CSV

Council Area
Description of file Single year age groups 5 year age groups
Last Release: Population Projections 2014-2039 were released in October 2016.
Next Release: Population Projections 2016-2041 will be released in 2018.
Source: National Records of Scotland (NRS)
Council Area Population Projections 2014-2039 SPSS CSV SPSS CSV

NHS Board
Description of file Single year age groups 5 year age groups
Last Release: Population Projections 2014-2039 were released in October 2016.
Next Release: Population Projections 2016-2041 will be released in 2018.
Source: National Records of Scotland (NRS)
NHS Board Population Projections 2014-2039 SPSS CSV SPSS CSV

Further information on population projections can be found on the NRS website: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections


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