Page last updated: 18-DEC-2007

Cancer

Statistical Publication Notice

18 December 2007

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Cancer Survival (1980-2004)

 

INTRODUCTION

Cancer survival statistics are important to patients as they give an indication of the likelihood of surviving a specified length of time after the diagnosis of a given cancer. However, the survival prospects of any given individual may vary considerably from the ‘average’ survival, depending on, for example, the particular features of their cancer.
 
The statistics are typically expressed as the proportion of patients alive at some point subsequent to the diagnosis of their cancer. This update reports on observed and relative survival for approximately 541,000 patients with cancer in Scotland, diagnosed between 1980 and 2004.  Please see the glossary, below, for a description of relative and observed survival.

KEY POINTS

  • Survival from cancer has, in general, increased between the periods of 1980-1984 and 2000-2004. 
  • Five year relative survival taking all cancers combined for the period 2000-2004 is 42% for males and 51% for females.
  • This represents an increase of 17 percentage points for males, and 13 percentage points for females, when looking at all cancers combined over the total study period.
  • Largest absolute increases in survival occurred in breast, colorectal and prostate cancers, malignant melanoma of the skin, lymphomas and leukaemias.
  • Details of the analysis and results can be found in the summary document “Trends in Cancer Survival in Scotland 1980-2004”, on this website.

INTERPRETATION

Please note that directly age-standardised survival figures, standardised to European patient population weights (EUROCARE-4), will be added to the web tables in January 2008. Direct standardisation allows comparison with other survival figures that are standardised against the same population, such as other European countries, and also comparison over time as population age structures change.
 
Survival is lowest in patients with cancers which often present at an advanced stage and are less amenable to treatment. Survival tends to be better for cancers with which patients are more likely to present at an early stage, for cancers which can be detected early by screening programmes, and for cancers in which there have been major advances in treatment. 
 
The recent decrease in survival from bladder cancer is an artefact of classification, reflecting a change in coding practice recommended by the European Network of Cancer Registries and subsequently by the UK Association of Cancer Registries.

DETAILED FINDINGS

These analyses of patients with cancer diagnosed between the years of 1980 and 2004 consist of approximately 275,000 male and 265,000 female cases.
 
Current findings, 2000-2004

Five year relative survival from the most common cancers, for the period 2000-2004:

  • cancers of the lung, including trachea and bronchus: 7% for males, 8% for females
  • cancer of the female breast : 84%
  • colorectal cancer: 55% for males and 54% for females
  • prostate cancer: 80%
In addition to breast and prostate cancers, the cancers with the highest 5 year relative survival are:
  • cancers of the testis (97%)
  • cancers of the cervix  (83%)
  • cancer of the thyroid (males: 81%; females: 92%)
  • Hodgkin’s disease (males: 90%; females: 92%)
In addition to lung cancer, the cancers with the lowest 5 year relative survival are:
  • cancer of the pancreas (2.7% both males and females)
  • cancer of the oesophagus (males: 11%; females: 8%)
  • cancer of the brain and central nervous system (males: 12%; females: 13%)
Trends from 1980-1984 to 2000-2004
Note: all percent changes below are absolute changes in percentage points.
 
Survival has generally increased for almost all cancers:
  • for all cancers excluding non-melanoma skin cancer, male 5 year relative survival has increased 17% between 1980-1984 and 2000-2004, with female 5 year survival increasing 13% in the same time period.
The greatest increases in 5 year relative survival were found in:
  • the lymphomas (Hodgkin’s Disease, Non-Hodgkin’s) and leukaemias, with increases ranging from 18% to 27% between 1980-1984 and 2000-2004
  • prostate cancer, increasing 34%
  • malignant melanoma of the skin, increasing 25% for males and 12% for females over the time period
The smallest changes or slight decreases in 5 year survival between 1980-1984 and 2000-2004 were found in:
  • cancers of the pancreas (-0.9% for males and females)
  • brain and CNS (0.3% and -3.6% males and females respectively)
  • larynx (1.2% and -1.2% males and females respectively)

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MAIN CONTACTS:

Susan Jensen, Principal Statistician
0131 275 6125
Susan.Jensen@isd.csa.scot.nhs.uk

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GLOSSARY:

Cancer survival statistics are typically expressed as the proportion of patients alive at some point subsequent to the diagnosis of their cancer.
 
Observed survival is the actual percentage of patients still alive at a specified time after diagnosis of cancer.
A limitation of observed survival is that it reflects deaths from all causes. Therefore, changes in rates of death from other causes affect observed survival, even if there has been no change in the likelihood of a person surviving from the cancer itself.
 
Relative survival attempts to overcome this problem by calculating survival as the ratio of observed survival divided by expected survival (based on life expectancy of the population). This can be thought of as a measure of the net survival expectation after developing cancer, or the probability of survival from cancer in the absence of other causes of death.
 
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PRE-RELEASE ACCESS TO THIS PUBLICATION WAS GIVEN TO:

Scottish Government Health Department
 
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HISTORY OF THIS PUBLICATION:

Last Published: 2004
Next Due: 2009
Data Available Since:  Data on cancer survival were previously published from 1977 onwards but are now published from 1980 onwards.  Earlier data are available on request.


Main contact: Email Cancer Stats