Cancer

Statistical Publication Notice

24th June 2008

Cancer Incidence (2005)

INTRODUCTION

INTERPRETATION

KEY POINTS

In recent years, the overall age-standardised incidence rates have fallen slightly for males and females. However, the rates do show considerable variation between cancers, with substantial increases in melanoma of the skin (both sexes), and decreases in stomach (both sexes) and lung cancers (males only). Actual numbers of cases of cancer have risen over the last decade, largely due to an ageing population.

DETAILED FINDINGS

• 12,749 males and 13,760 females were diagnosed with cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) in 2005. These figures are slightly lower than in 2004, and are expected to increase slightly due to the continuing accrual of late registrations.
• Over the last decade (1996-2005) the age-standardised incidence rate of cancer has fallen steadily in males (a 9% decrease) and decreased slightly in females (2% decrease).
• Lung cancer is the most common cancer overall, and is the most common cancer in males, but second most common cancer in females. The long-term decline seen in the incidence rate in males has continued, with a significant fall in the incidence rate of 23% over the last ten years. Lung cancer incidence rates in females continue to increase, with a 3.5% increase over the same time period. To a large extent, these trends reflect historic trends in the prevalence of smoking, which have differed between men and women.
• Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women, with the incidence rate continuing to rise. Over the last decade the incidence rate has increased by 9%; this is partly due to increased detection by the Scottish Breast Screening Programme, which has seen a rise in attendance over the same time period, and an extension in the age range invited for screening to include women up to the age of 70 years, phased in over the 3-year period beginning 1st April, 2003. However, increases in the incidence of breast cancer might also be anticipated with higher prevalence of known risk factors among the female population, such as increases in the mother’s age at the birth of her first child, and increases in alcohol consumption.
• Prostate and lung cancers are the most common cancers in men with approximately the same relative frequency of 19%, but the incidence rate of lung cancer is generally decreasing while the incidence rate of prostate cancer has risen approximately 14% over the last decade. The increased prostate cancer incidence rate is due, at least in part, to increased detection through use of the prostate specific antigen (PSA) test, and not necessarily due to a genuine increase in the risk of developing the cancer.
• Colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer in both males and females, and rates have fallen in both sexes over the past ten years, although at a greater rate in females (11%) than in males (5%). Although patterns of diet and physical activity in the Scottish population have been associated with the risk of developing colorectal cancer, the explanation for the recent trend in incidence is unclear. The Scottish Bowel Screening Pilot project, which ran from April 2000 to June 2007 would be expected to lead to an increase in detection and incidence among the age group (50-69 years) invited for screening in the NHS Boards involved in the Pilot (Fife, Grampian and Tayside). However, this does not seem to have had a major impact on incidence rates at a national level, and would not have had an impact across all age groups.
• Malignant melanoma of the skin is now the ninth most common cancer in men and the seventh most common in women. Incidence rates continue to rise significantly, with a steep increase of 43% in males and 20% in females over the last decade. The primary recognised risk factor for melanoma of the skin is exposure to sunlight, especially but not exclusively, in childhood.
• Other sites where the incidence rates of cancer have risen significantly over the past ten years include: in females, cancers of the uterus (18% increase), in males cancer of the testis (26% increase), and non-melanoma skin cancers in both (approximately 27% increase in both males and females).
• Cancers for which incidence rates have fallen significantly over the past ten years include stomach (29% decrease in both males and females), cancers of the cervix and oesophagus in females (29% and 12% decrease, respectively), and cancer of the pancreas in males (13% decrease).
• The decline in bladder cancer incidence since 1997 is an artefact due to a change in coding practice across cancer registries in the UK. Around a quarter of bladder tumours are no longer coded as invasive bladder cancers. This decrease is large enough to have an impact on the figures for all cancers combined.
• Cancer prevalence estimates the number of people still living after a cancer diagnosis, which is a reflection of both incidence rates and survival from cancer within the population. Overall, 2% of males and 3% of females in Scotland are estimated to be living with cancer. Breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer among females (1344 persons per 100,000 population), and prostate cancer among males (583 persons per 100,000 population).
• As an estimate, based on current incidence rates, one in three people in Scotland will develop some form of cancer during their lifetime; 1 in 9 males, and 1 in 7 females will develop some form of cancer before the age of 65. Having survived to age 65 without cancer, the risk of cancer after that age is estimated to be 1 in 3 for males, and 1 in 4 for females.
• For the most common cancers, the lifetime risk of a male developing lung cancer is estimated as 1 in 13, of prostate cancer 1 in 13, and 1 in 18 men are estimated to develop colorectal cancer during their lifetime. For females, there is an estimated 1 in 10 risk of being diagnosed with breast cancer, 1 in 17 for lung cancer, and 1 in 22 females are estimated to develop colorectal cancer during their lifetime.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

MAIN CONTACTS:

Susan Jensen
Principal Statistician
0131 275 6125
Susan.Jensen@isd.csa.scot.nhs.uk

PRE-RELEASE ACCESS TO THIS PUBLICATION WAS GIVEN TO:

HISTORY OF THIS PUBLICATION:

Last Published: May 2007
Next Due: May 2009
Data Avaliable Since: Data on cancer incidence were previously published from 1975 onwards but are now published from 1980 onwards.  Earlier data are available on request.

Main contact: Susan Jensen

 Printer friendly version