Long Term Conditions

Statistical Publication Notice

24 June 2008

Measuring Long Term Conditions in Scotland

INTRODUCTION

This release consists of two reports:

The SPARRA (Scottish Patients at Risk of Readmission & Admission) algorithm is being used to identify those patients at greatest risk of emergency admission in particular year. The current algorithm can be applied to patients aged 65 & over who have had an emergency admission in the previous 3 years. The first report describes the outcome of work performed to extend the algorithm so that it can be applied to patients of all ages.

The second report outlines the main data sources for measuring long-term conditions, identifies the most common conditions and provides estimates fro their prevalence in the population.

KEY POINTS

SPARRA report

A new tool has been developed and this will be piloted with a small number of users to assess its implications.
The new tool expands the number of patients whose risk of emergency can be predicted as it can be applied to any patient admitted as an emergency in the previous 3 years (around 700,000 individuals).
It also significantly increases the number of patients who can be identified as having a high risk of emergency admission. For example the number of patients with a predicted risk of 50% or more is double the number identifed by the current SPARRA tool.

LTC prevalence report

The most common long-term conditions are asthma, depression and hypertension, each affecting over 5% of the population.
Estimates of the number of people with a long-term condition vary depending on definitions and data sources used. Using PTI (Practice Team Information), approximately 47% of the population consult a GP practice team member for a potential long-term condition in a 1-year period. In the most recent SHS (Scottish Health Survey), around 37% population reported some form of long-term illness, health problem or disability.
Long-term conditions prevalence increases with age. For example SHS shows that 65% of those aged over 65 have some form of long-term illness, health problem or disability.

INTERPRETATION

The extension of SPARRA applicability to patients of all ages was a commitment made in the Better Health Better Care Action Plan. This report meets this commitment.

There are numerous definitions of what constitutes a long-term condition and estimates for the number of people with a long-term condition vary widely depending on the definitions and data sources used.

DETAILED FINDINGS

The development of ‘All ages SPARRA’ represents another step forward in the development of risk-stratificaton tools that can be applied to the population with long-term conditions.

The prevalence reports provides a basis for further work on understanding the burden of long-term conditions in Scotland at a local and nationwide level.

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