Cancer Incidence

Statistical Publication Notice

28 April 2009

Cancer Incidence (2006)

INTRODUCTION

KEY POINTS

INTERPRETATION

The updated figures show cancer incidence (1985-2006) for each major cancer, and replace information previously available on the ISD Scotland website. Cancer registrationsarebelievedtobeessentiallycomplete(>98% at time of analysis) for the year 2006, but it is important to note that the cancer registration database is dynamic. In common with cancer registries in other countries, cancer incidence rates in Scotland can take up to five years after the end of a given calendar year to reach 100% completeness and stability, due to the continuing accrual of late registrations coming to light through death certification, for example.

It may be misleading to focus too much attention on any apparent changes in incidence between 2005 and 2006. It is more informative to examine trends in incidence observed over a number of years. Striking changes from one year to the next may occur in the case of rare cancers, but these are likely to reflect random fluctuation caused by small numbers of cases. In such cases it is even more important to examine incidence rates for a number of years aggregated together, rather than focussing on a single year of incidence.

DETAILED FINDINGS

• Approximately 13,100 males and 13,800 females were diagnosed with cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) in 2006. These figures for all cancers combined are similar to 2005. The 2006 numbers are expected to increase slightly over time due to the continuing accrual of late registrations.
• Over the last decade (1996-2006) the age-standardised incidence rate of cancer has fallen steadily in males (a 9% decrease) and decreased slightly in females (3% decrease).
• Lung cancer is the most common cancer overall, and is the most common cancer in males, but second most common cancer in females. The long-term decline seen in the incidence rate in males has continued, with a significant fall in the incidence rate of 23% over the last ten years. Lung cancer incidence rates in females continue to increase, with a 5% increase over the last ten years. To a large extent, these trends reflect historic trends in the prevalence of smoking, which have differed between men and women.
• Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women, with the incidence rate continuing to rise. Over the last decade the incidence rate has increased by 10%; this is partly due to increased detection by the Scottish Breast Screening Programme, which has seen a rise in attendance over the same time period, and an extension in the age range invited for screening to include women up to the age of 70 years, phased in over the 3-year period beginning 1st April 2003. However, increases in the incidence of breast cancer might also be anticipated with higher prevalence of known risk factors among the female population, such as increases in the mother?s age at the birth of her first child, and increases in alcohol consumption.
• Prostate and lung cancers are the most common cancers in men with the same relative frequency of  approximately19%, but the incidence rate of lung cancer is generally decreasing while the incidence rate of prostate cancer has risen approximately 14% over the last decade. The increased prostate cancer incidence rate is due, at least in part, to increased detection through use of the prostate specific antigen (PSA) test, and not necessarily due to a genuine increase in the risk of developing the cancer.
• Colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer in both males and females, and rates have fallen in both sexes by approximately 10% over the past ten years. Although patterns of diet and physical activity in the Scottish population have been associated with the risk of developing colorectal cancer, the explanation for the recent trend in incidence is unclear. The Scottish Bowel Screening Pilot project, which ran from April 2000 to June 2007 would be expected, at least initially, to lead to an increase in detection and incidence among the age group (50-69 years) invited for screening in the NHS Boards involved in the Pilot (Fife, Grampian and Tayside). However, this does not seem to have had a major impact on incidence rates at a national level, and would not have had an impact across all age groups.
• Malignant melanoma of the skin is now the eighth most common cancer in men and the fourth most common in women. Incidence rates continue to rise significantly, with a steep increase of 50% in males and 30% in females over the last decade. The primary recognised risk factor for melanoma of the skin is exposure to sunlight, especially but not exclusively, in childhood.
• Other sites where the incidence rates of cancer have risen significantly over the past ten years include: in females, cancers of the uterus (11% increase), in males cancer of the testis (17% increase), and non-melanoma skin cancers in both (approximately 24% for females, 30% for males).
• Cancers for which incidence rates have fallen significantly over the past ten years include stomach (approximately 30% decrease in both males and females), cancers of the cervix and ovary in females (29% and 19% decrease, respectively), and cancer of the pancreas in males (17% decrease).
• The decline in bladder cancer incidence since 1997 is an artefact due to a change in coding practice across cancer registries in the UK. Around a quarter of bladder tumours are no longer coded as invasive bladder cancers. This decrease is large enough to have an impact on the figures for all cancers combined.

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MAIN CONTACTS:

Susan Jensen
Principal Statistician
0131 275 6125
susan.jensen@nhs.net

GLOSSARY:

PRE-RELEASE ACCESS

HISTORY OF THIS PUBLICATION:

Last Published: June 2008
Next Due: April 2010
Data Avaliable Since: Data on cancer incidence were previously published from 1975 onwards but are now published from 1985 onwards.  Earlier data are available on request.

Main contact: Susan Jensen

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